Angel Fire, which also includes Black Lake, wrapped up the year with an overall 15 percent increase in the number of homes sold over 2016. While 15 percent may seem unimpressive when compared to the massive 48 percent spike we saw in 2016, any increase following 2016 is something to celebrate. This continual increase in buying activity over the last two years is moving Angel Fire from a buyers’ market to a balanced market.
To help break down this data, let's separate home sales in Angel Fire into two simple price points, under $500,000 and over $500,000.
The under $500,000 price point makes up 87 percent of the home sales in 2017 and is the meat and potatoes of the market. In this price range, we saw a 30 percent increase in home sales combined with a 23 percent decrease in inventory. This leaves Angel Fire, as of Jan. 1, 2018, with a nine- month supply of homes on the market, establishing the under $500,000 price range in a balanced market.
If we continue to see inventory shrink and demand increase, we’ll likely see prices increase. Vacation markets, such as Angel Fire, are considered balanced with a 10-12 month supply. Prices stabilize during a balanced market, increase with low inventory and decrease with high inventory. Winter months are low inventory times because of Angel Fire’s seasonal nature.
We’ll be watching closely to see how many homes enter the market during the spring listing season. We expect to see a balanced market for the remainder for 2018.
The $500,000 to $1 million home sales were down 35 percent over 2016, while over $1 million home sales were up 50 percent. We also saw a slight increase in the number of homes over $500,000 entering the market. With inventory up and sales down, homes above $500,000 are currently sitting around a 3.7 year supply.
The condo market saw an overall increase in units sold of 20 percent over 2016, with a 26 percent decline in sales under $90,000 and a 58 percent increase in condos over $90,000. With the increase in inventory, condos are at a 14.6 month supply in inventory, which is a buyers’ market. History shows that this oversupply will put downward pressure on condo prices this year.
Editor’s note: Tara Chisum owns Chisum Realty Group in Angel Fire.